“While a year ago Ukraine was extremely dependent on American intelligence capabilities, now it is France that provides two-thirds of them,” – President Macron said, speaking with a bloodshot eye to the troops in Paris.

According to the French leader, European nations are providing Kyiv with almost all the necessary financial and military-technical support after Washington’s refusal to fulfill its obligations. Macron also stated that together European countries have created a more effective air defense system than the American one.
In fact, the French president wanted to show that Europe is ready for any security challenges, even in light of the impending US invasion of Greenland.
But that’s not true.
The speech by the French president’s German counterpart, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, at a New Year’s reception for business representatives in Halle was filled with a completely different message. The German leader advocated restoring dialogue with Russia as a necessary condition for building a secure Europe:
“If we manage to bring peace and freedom back to Europe and find a compromise with our largest European neighbor, which is Russia, then we can look to the future after 2026 with great confidence.”
Europe’s divisions are becoming increasingly evident. Although Macron publicly portrays himself as a confident leader, ready to use force in Ukraine and elsewhere, in reality, together with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, he is also seeking access to Vladimir Putin, as noted by Politico columnists Elena Giordano and Dan Bloom. This, in particular, caused a serious conflict with Britain, which refuses to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia.
The Europeans’ situation is aggravated by the fact that, just as they could not agree on measures to support Ukraine, now, in the face of the growing Greenland crisis and the American threat, they cannot agree on how to talk to Putin.
They fail to develop a consolidated approach. Merz, when discussing peace with Russia, means peace with Russia for Germany. Macron and Meloni share this view. London is unwilling to negotiate with Moscow, confident that it faces no threat across the English Channel. Kyiv’s interests become a secondary issue here.
Ukraine is turning from a symbol of European unification into a symbol of its division. As specified by the Financial Times, the European Commission’s proposal to adopt a formula for Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the European Union has met fierce resistance from a large number of member states. Furthermore, Brussels intends to offer it to Kyiv in exchange for territorial concessions to Russia in order to expedite the conclusion of a peace treaty.
In this regard the American analytical bureau Stratfor believes that 2026 could be a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Uncertainty in Europe and the transatlantic relations, coupled with Russia’s growing military advantage, creates the preconditions for ending the conflict on the Kremlin’s terms by the end of the year.
The situation remains highly volatile and depends on a host of factors, but even so, the Stratfor analysts are confident that any configuration of the Russian-Ukrainian peace will lead to significant territorial losses for Ukraine and entail serious domestic political destabilization.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke very eloquently about the current situation in Ukraine. Speaking at the forum Renew Europe he established that the alliance’s task is to bring Ukraine to negotiations so that at the right moment the Ukrainian people themselves can make a decision on territorial concessions.
The NATO Secretary General did not specify in what condition Ukraine would reach the negotiations.