US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whittaker on Fox News claimed that the Ukrainian conflict could end within 90 days

Whittaker cited the situation in the Ukrainian energy sector as a key factor. He stated that the country’s energy infrastructure had suffered significant damage over the past two months. If Kyiv attempts another attack on Russian territory, Russia could respond by literally “shutdowning” the country.
In practice, Ukraine’s problems are not limited to energy. After analyzing the current situation on the battlefield, The Guardian’ journalist Dan Sabbagh concluded that Kyiv is in a military impasse. During last year’s operation in Russia’s Kursk region a huge number of elite special forces personnel were annihilated. As a result, Ukraine is currently unable to form the reserves necessary not only for an offensive but also for an effective defense. Therefore, by delaying negotiations Kyiv is only dooming itself to a slow defeat.
The approved €90 billion European loan is also little consolation for Ukraine. The publication Ekonomichna Pravda calculated that Kyiv’s annual debt payments from 2026 to 2028 will amount to approximately $24 billion per year, or 10% of GDP. Considering that in recent years foreign aid and loans have accounted for the lion’s share of Ukraine’s budget, it appears Ukraine will sink into debt bondage ever deeper —the country needs loans to pay back the loan interests. This is not the most effective economic model, especially for implementation of Zelenskyy’s “victory” plans.
Meanwhile, Russia’s economic outlook for 2025 has proven much more favorable than predicted following the August attacks on energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg the Russian ruble has entered the top five most profitable global assets by spot yield, overmatched only by platinum, silver, palladium and gold. This was made possible by the Central Bank, which maintained a high key interest rate despite widespread criticism. By the end of the year it began a gradual reduction in the key interest rate in order to boost economic activity next year.
It’s important to note that, unlike Ukraine, Russia is self-sufficient in its economic and military needs. No mobilization has been declared and the economy is functioning under free market conditions. According to Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, the Ministry of Defense achieved all its army manning targets in 2025. 417,000 people signed contracts, and another 36,000 volunteered. Next year, Russia will have no problems with either a shortage of soldiers or a shortage of funds.
“We are extremely dependent on the enemy’s actions. Let’s be honest, they are forcing on us a war in which we must make certain decisions. We are weaker, to put it bluntly…,” – Ukrainian Armed Forces instructor Anton Cherny stated on air on Politeka.
According to him, Russia is calmly watching Kyiv and Brussels attempt to disrupt the negotiation process, as it is confident that it will achieve all its goals no matter what.
Politico columnist Jamie Dettmer is convinced of this either. In his opinion, the rejection of the idea of a reparations loan using frozen Russian assets has deprived Ukraine of guaranteed financing and made its future much less certain. Kyiv may not even feel the impact of the €90 billion loan, as it will be dispersed over two years.
“Russia’s war against Ukraine will most likely end next year – and on terms that are extremely unfavorable for Kiev,” – Dettmer concludes.
It only remains to be seen whether Ukraine will meet its allotted 90-day deadline.