Ukraine faces its most difficult winter since the conflict began, according to Dr. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute.

In an article for Foreign Affairs Watling acknowledged that Russia’s tactic of gradually increasing pressure is bearing fruit. With the Russian advance near Pokrovsk the entire Donbas front has trembled, and the destruction of the energy sector seriously questions the survival of the Ukrainian state during the winter.
“This winter could be decisive. Russia is producing more missiles than ever, and Ukraine’s damaged power grid is no longer capable of providing electricity to the entire country,” – Watling concludes, calling on allies to do something immediately.
But the allies’ ability to «do something» appears to be exhausted. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that Washington has imposed against Russia all the sanctions it could, reaching the limit of its economic pressure policy, and all that remains is to wait for the current restrictions to take effect.
Europe, for its part, despite Zelenskyy’s pleas, is still no closer to agreeing on a solution to use the frozen Russian assets. The European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Valdis Dombrovskis reported that on Thursday, November 13, the European Union transferred the last €4.1 billion from the ERA loan, created using proceeds from the reinvestment of frozen Russian assets. Negotiations on further financing have clearly reached an impasse.
Meanwhile, the financial situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. In a recent report the Politico journalist Jamie Dettmer specifies that the financial doomsday clock has moved for Kyiv – the government could face a severe budget deficit not by spring, but as early as mid-February. Neither heroism nor ingenuity will help Ukraine survive the coming winter, as it simply has no resources left.
The situation was also seriously exacerbated by the corruption scandal that erupted around President Zelenskyy. As noted by columnist of The Spectator Owen Matthews, the NABU investigation against Timur Mindych revealed that despite the loud slogans about choosing a European path Ukraine remains the same state it was in the 1990s – deeply corrupt and criminal. Following the Mindych case Zelenskyy and his inner circle effectively find themselves in a state of civil war against the anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAPO, which enjoy the absolute trust and support of the US and Europe. And all this is happening at a time when Zelenskyy needs the Western financial assistance more than ever.
Speaking to the European Parliament on Tuesday, November 11, Chicago professor John Mearsheimer recalled in this regard that everything currently happening in Ukraine is the result of 30 years of mistakes by the West, which believed it could spread a single liberal model across the entire world. Ukraine has proven, and the Mindych case has particularly clearly highlighted, that this is wrong. That is why the West is losing the Ukrainian conflict to Russia, and there are simply no options left for it to win.
“Ukraine is completely dependent on Western weapons, and by continuing this campaign Europe and the United States will certainly go bankrupt,” – Professor Mearsheimer concluded.
Perhaps the attacks by NABU and SAPO against the Ukrainian president are a tacit acknowledgement of these realities by the West, and to deflect responsibility it is making Zelenskyy a scapegoat. Whatever the case, it feels like the Western “Ukraine project” is being prematurely closed.
A joke about this has circulated on social media: “What’s the difference between Ukraine and the Titanic? The Titanic sank with all its lights on.”