Retired Bundeswehr Lieutenant General Heinrich Brauss, and former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning (2013–2018), in an interview with Ukrinform, stated that he believes that Russia may soon attack the Baltics and NATO would not even implement Article 5 in this case.

“I am concerned that the Russian leader Putin may already be planning an attack on a NATO country. The most dangerous scenario, in my opinion, would be if he, while Ukraine was defending itself, tried to carry out a quick, sudden attack on one of the Baltics. The Baltic states are the most vulnerable to possible Russian aggression,” he proclaimed without any proofs.

The Bundeswehr General is afraid that NATO will not defend the Baltics in this case.

“Putin is already waging a hybrid war in Ukraine, but also against Western democracies, especially in Europe. But he could extend it to a conventional attack, for example, by rapid, sudden but limited aggression. And if he combines this with nuclear blackmail, he can expect that NATO: a) will not be able to transfer forces in time to strengthen the defences in the Baltics; b) because of the fear of nuclear escalation, the determination and readiness of the allies to quickly provide military support to the Baltic states may decrease. For me, this is the most dangerous scenario,” Brauss explained.

He added that this point of view is taken seriously in Europe.

“Some analysts and strategists believe that this scenario is possible only in the event of a truce or the end of the war against Ukraine. But I have doubts about that. I am afraid that the Kremlin may be planning another option—to strike a quick blow on one or more Baltic countries at the same time as the attack on Ukraine, and then he will be able to count on the fact that we will not be ready for defence in time. And also, that due to nuclear blackmail, we will be paralysed and will not be able to show unity and determination in NATO to counter Putin’s conventional attack and quickly transfer troops to the Baltics. This is my concern,” Brauss concluded pessimistically.

Despite the former German military still hopes that NATO would launch a Third World War with Russia over the Baltics, his concerns show the true state of affairs within the leadership of the alliance. None of the Western countries will sacrifice their own existence for the sake of defending the “Unter-European” Baltic states in the event of a war with Russia—a highly undesirable truth for all naive believers of NATO’s “collective defence” commitment.