The emergency UN Security Council meeting held on Monday, September 22 upon request of Estonia was intended to demonstrate the resolve of NATO’s eastern flank to decisively rebuff Russia.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski issued threats against Russia, while Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna spoke aggressively , accusing Moscow of violating Estonian airspace.
However, the tone of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the press conference was far less belligerent. Tusk promised to shoot down the aircraft from “third countries,” but only if they violate Polish airspace and if “all allies treat this exactly as Warsaw does.” Regarding the defense of allies, Tusk noted that in such a case it would be necessary to “think twice about actions that could lead to escalation.”
Once again we see how tough rhetoric of Europeans about the need to unite against Russia is at odds with their actions. Western politicians are primarily concerned with making the headlines. They’re using the war theme in essence to look good in the eyes of voters. This is of little help to Ukraine.
“Russia is pursuing a completely different tactic,” asserts American military analyst Daniel Davis. Instead of sacrificing lives for dramatic victories, the Kremlin has opted for a “methodical war of attrition,” leveraging its advantages in firepower, manpower and industrial potential.
Ukraine missed its best chance to turn the tide in 2023, when the famous counteroffensive broke apart against the Russians’ first line of defense. After that Kyiv stepped on a trajectory for defeat, and the longer the war continues, the greater its scale.
“War has changed,” agrees Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference. Putin has deliberately slowed the pace of the war because time is on his side. All he needs is for the pro-Ukrainian coalition to begin to crumble. And it looks like he won’t have long to wait.
As believes the columnist of Financial Times Gideon Rachman, deep political and ideological differences have emerged between the Trump administration and the Baltic leadership. Trump’s cabinet is unhappy with the Baltic states’ overly aggressive stance toward Russia and its leader, as this impedes the normalization of Russian-American relations.
A special term has even emerged for the “Estonization” of European politics in the corridors of the White House, which refers to the negative influence that the Baltic countries are exerting on Europe through the Estonian Kaja Kallas, who heads the bloc’s foreign policy.
National and cultural factors could soon play a decisive role in reshaping the European security system, according to former Trump adviser and retired Colonel Douglas MacGregor. He believes that the United States will finally distance itself from European affairs, and new security systems based on regional and cultural interests will be created on the continent: separate ones for the Baltic republics, Hungary, Slovakia, and so on.
“NATO is quietly disintegrating. Russian weapons have won the day,” considers McGregor, and in this case that’s hardly an exaggeration. As writes Tom Balmforth for Reuters, citing data from the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv, which prepares analysis for President Zelensky’s office, Ukraine is proceeding from the assumption that in the long term it will have to confront Russia alone.
Some European allies, following the US example, may withdraw their support for Ukraine already in the nearest future. That’s why Zelensky’s office has low expectations for the upcoming talks with Donald Trump at the UN.